Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 197.525465 239.357986 291.006928 360.588179 453.656127 5.765216e+02 7.557278e+02
2025-06-08 143.159818 188.568955 251.490459 348.436447 500.730105 7.438488e+02 1.192831e+03
2025-06-15 123.953683 174.260380 250.736443 382.806343 622.912442 1.085179e+03 2.192240e+03
2025-06-22 105.298169 154.802959 235.115956 385.920512 692.986921 1.384285e+03 3.494005e+03
2025-06-29 93.602096 142.983498 227.770207 399.483133 788.745057 1.815576e+03 5.940377e+03
2025-07-06 82.467956 129.637230 214.186114 395.847123 845.308310 2.205727e+03 9.351618e+03
2025-07-13 78.323027 127.392757 220.036435 434.269678 1028.008817 3.203793e+03 2.082742e+04
2025-07-20 74.222266 124.369594 223.503969 468.665153 1226.103781 4.612319e+03 5.237271e+04
2025-07-27 69.923666 120.174360 223.534878 494.835709 1421.906435 6.487260e+03 1.544775e+05
2025-08-03 65.372750 114.730819 219.678971 509.559827 1593.225859 8.784371e+03 5.733324e+05
2025-08-10 60.741839 108.438017 212.656974 513.115508 1727.614452 1.140532e+04 3.288122e+06
2025-08-17 55.896029 101.062907 201.795477 501.840968 1791.442178 1.378135e+04 4.293059e+07
2025-08-24 51.152152 93.564758 189.949802 485.910971 1834.781454 1.651090e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 46.946505 86.756800 178.752301 469.073588 1865.722076 1.960170e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 46.256352 87.520016 186.642518 520.389572 2354.426086 3.809575e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 43.666533 83.696055 181.942805 525.113356 2565.687446 5.592154e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 41.894877 81.525983 181.292031 545.472342 2934.570858 9.818477e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 39.431769 77.463627 174.744868 540.013039 3097.375547 1.439414e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 39.075045 78.347933 182.352877 598.071220 3982.990956 4.852102e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 38.440540 78.476006 187.830073 650.641468 5015.054766 2.528692e+06 NaN
2025-10-19 37.470074 77.649774 190.286656 691.004559 6089.169672 3.462198e+07 NaN
2025-10-26 36.162002 75.818038 189.275345 713.848225 7043.244027 7.928812e+12 NaN
2025-11-02 34.612010 73.201976 185.309587 719.378970 7765.856166 NaN NaN